Real Balance Effects, Timing and Equilibrium Determination

This paper examines whether the existence and the timing of real balance effects contribute to the determination of the absolute price level, as suggested by Patinkin (1949,1965), and if they affect conditions for local equilibrium uniqueness and stability. I show that there exists a unique price level sequence that is consistent with an equilibrium under interest rate policy, only if beginning-of-period money yields transaction services. Predetermined real money balances can then serve as a state variable, implying that interest rate setting must be passive - a violation of the Taylor-principle - for unique, stable, and non-oscillatory equilibrium sequences. On the contrary, when the end-of-period money stock facilitates transactions, the equilibrium displays nominal indeterminacy and equilibrium uniqueness requires an interest rate setting consistent with the Taylor-principle.Real balance effects, predetermined money, price level determination, real determinacy, monetary policy rules, flexible prices

Money Demand and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

This paper examines how money demand induced real balance effects contribute to the determination of the price level, as suggested by Patinkin (1949,1965), and if they affect conditions for local equilibrium uniqueness and stability. There exists a unique price level sequence that is consistent with an equilibrium under interest rate policy, only if beginning-of-period money enters the utility function. Real money can then serve as a state variable, implying that interest rate setting must be passive for unique, stable, and non-oscillatory equilibrium sequences. When end-ofperiod money provides utility, an equilibrium is consistent with infinitely many price level sequences, and equilibrium uniqueness requires an active interest rate setting. The stability results are, in general, independent of the magnitude of real balance effects, and apply also when prices are sticky. In contrast, under a constant money growth policy, equilibrium sequences are (likely to be) locally stable and unique for all model variants.Real balance effects, predetermined money, price level determination, real determinacy, monetary policy rules

Optimal Policy Under Model Uncertainty: A Structural-Bayesian Estimation Approach

In this paper we propose a novel methodology to analyze optimal policies under model uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconomic models. As an application we assess the relevant sources of uncertainty for the optimal conduct of monetary policy within (parameter uncertainty) and across models (specification uncertainty) using EU 13 data. Parameter uncertainty matters only if the zero bound on interest rates is explicitly taken into account. In any case, optimal monetary policy is highly sensitive with respect to specification uncertainty implying substantial welfare gains of a robustly-optimal rule that incorporates this risk.Optimal monetary policy, model uncertainty, Bayesian model estimation.

Money demand and macroeconomic stability revisited

This paper examines how money demand induced real balance effects contribute to the determination of the price level, as suggested by Patinkin (1949,1965), and if they affect conditions for local equilibrium uniqueness and stability. There exists a unique price level sequence that is consistent with an equilibrium under interest rate policy, only if beginning-of-period money enters the utility function. Real money can then serve as a state variable, implying that interest rate setting must be passive for unique, stable, and non oscillatory equilibrium sequences. When end-ofperiod money provides utility, an equilibrium is consistent with infinitely many price level sequences, and equilibrium uniqueness requires an active interest rate setting. The stability results are, in general, independent of the magnitude of real balance effects, and apply also when prices are sticky. In contrast, under a constant money growth policy, equilibrium sequences are (likely to be) locally stable and unique for all model variants. JEL Classification: E32, E41, E52monetary policy rules, predetermined money, price level determination, Real balance effects, real determinacy

Nested models and model uncertainty

Uncertainty about the appropriate choice among nested models is a central concern for optimal policy when policy prescriptions from those models differ. The standard procedure is to specify a prior over the parameter space ignoring the special status of some sub-models, e.g. those resulting from zero restrictions. This is especially problematic if a model's generalization could be either true progress or the latest fad found to fit the data. We propose a procedure that ensures that the specified set of sub-models is not discarded too easily and thus receives no weight in determining optimal policy. We find that optimal policy based on our procedure leads to substantial welfare gains compared to the standard practice.Optimal monetary policy, model uncertainty, Bayesian model estimation

Policy Announcements and Welfare

In the presence of idiosyncratic risk, the public revelation of information about uncertain aggregate outcomes such as policy choices can be detrimental to social welfare. By announcing informative signals on non-insurable aggregate risk, the policy maker distorts agents’ insurance incentives and increases the riskiness of the optimal allocation that is feasible in self-enforceable arrangements. As an application, we consider a monetary authority that may reveal changes in the inflation target, and document that the negative effect of distorted insurance incentives can very well dominate conventional effects in favor for the release of better information.Social value of information, policy announcements, monetary policy, transparency

Policy announcements and welfare

In the presence of idiosyncratic risk, the public revelation of information about uncertain aggregate outcomes such as policy choices can be detrimental to social welfare. By announcing informative signals on non-insurable aggregate risk, the policy maker distorts agents¿ insurance incentives and increases the riskiness of the optimal allocation that is feasible in self-enforceable arrangements. As an application, we consider a monetary authority that may reveal changes in the inflation target, and document that the negative effect of distorted insurance incentives can very well dominate conventional effects in favor for the release of better information.social value of information, policy announcements, monetary policy, transparency

Machine Translation Vs. Multilingual Dictionaries Assessing Two Strategies for the Topic Modeling of Multilingual Text Collections

The goal of this paper is to evaluate two methods for the topic modeling of multilingual document collections: (1) machine translation (MT), and (2) the coding of semantic concepts using a multilingual dictionary (MD) prior to topic modeling. We empirically assess the consequences of these approaches based on both a quantitative comparison of models and a qualitative validation of each method’s potentials and weaknesses. Our case study uses two text collections (of tweets and news articles) in three languages (English, Hebrew, Arabic), covering the ongoing local conflicts between Israeli authorities, settlers, and Palestinian Bedouins in the West Bank. We find that both methods produce a large share of equivalent topics, especially in the context of fairly homogenous news discourse, yet show limited but systematic differences when applied to highly heterogenous social media discourse. While the MD model delivers a more nuanced picture of conflict-related topics, it misses several more peripheral topics, especially those unrelated to the dictionary’s focus, which are picked up by the MT model. Our study is a first step toward instrument validation, indicating that both methods yield valid, comparable results, while method-specific differences remain

UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) Policy Announcements and Welfare *

Policy announcements and welfare Stoltenberg, C.A.; Lepetyuk, V. Link to publication General rights It is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulations If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: https://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. July, 2009 Abstract In the presence of idiosyncratic risk, the public revelation of information about uncertain aggregate outcomes such as policy choices can be detrimental to social welfare. By announcing informative signals on non-insurable aggregate risk, the policy maker distorts agents' insurance incentives and increases the riskiness of the optimal allocation that is feasible in self-enforceable arrangements. As an application, we consider a monetary authority that may reveal changes in the inflation target, and document that the negative effect of distorted insurance incentives can very well dominate conventional effects in favor for the release of better information. JEL classification: D81, D86, E21, E52, E65